A psycho-geopolitical analysis of the shift of inter-state conflicts towards strategic peripheries: a theoretical contribution on the cognitive projection of major conflicts in spaces of hybrid competition: The case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict in West

Abstract

The Russia–Ukraine war is a key indicator of contemporary transformations in the international order and the diversification of forms of power projection. This article examines how an inter-state conflict, the main theatre of which remains Eastern Europe, produces geopolitical, strategic, informational and psychological effects in the African peripheries, with a particular focus on West Africa. The aim is to move beyond a strictly territorial interpretation of the ‘transfer’ of the conflict and to propose the concept of the psychogeopolitical projection of major conflicts, defined as the process by which representations of threat, strategic narratives, identity-based antagonisms, instruments of power and practices of influence stemming from a major conflict are projected into peripheral spaces, and then reinterpreted in the context of local vulnerabilities. Using a qualitative, comparative and process-oriented approach covering mainly the period 2014–2026, the study compares two contrasting scenarios: Mali, characterised by a strong Russian security and military-political projection, and Benin, which is more exposed to spillover effects, security pressures and information warfare. Burkina Faso is used as an intermediate case to understand the consolidation of the Russian–Sahelian alignment. The analysis shows that war does not automatically ‘spill over’ into Africa: rather, it produces a multidimensional projection, the effects of which depend on the interaction between external strategies, local structures, perceptions of threat and the capacity of African actors to take ownership of the situation. The article also demonstrates that Africa is not a passive arena for rivalry between powers: African governments possess their own agency and utilise international competition to diversify their partnerships and strengthen their strategic autonomy. The theoretical contribution thus lies in the integration of geopolitics, political psychology, strategic narratives and hybrid competition within a single explanatory model. The empirical and theoretical findings, the methodological approach and the construction of the psychogeopolitical model significantly corroborate our research hypothesis.

Keywords: psychogeopolitics; cognitive projection; the Russia–Ukraine war; West Africa; hybrid competition; threat perception.

Received Date: August 17, 2026

Accepted Date: September 09, 2026

Published Date: October 01, 2026

Available Online at: https://www.ijsrisjournal.com/index.php/ojsfiles/article/view/1016